Some notes on the possibility of an invasion of Cuba

IF Fidel Castro is unable to continue in the post of Cuban president --for what ever reason -- I cannot imagine a worst time for the Bush administration if they seek to meddle actively in Cuban affairs.

As Ricardo Alarcon makes out in his Democracy Now  interview that I referred to on Thursday last -- US arrogance isn't as warranted as all that.
As for those fools in Miami -- exiles I've noted over the years  suffer a lot from the same syndrome, wherein nostalgia plays tricks on their minds. It is the same with the right wing Vietnamese in this country who entertain the grandest of schemes to turn the clock back to the old days as vassals of the French.

But if I was GWB I'd be concerned somewhat about Latin America -- as  much as I'd be grievously worried about the free hand I'd given Israel in Lebanon.

In the Middle East for the fist time in almost 40 years an armed force is standing up to Zionism and galvanizing the world in a sort of new alliance of opposition that is going to change the frontline in regards to Iraq and Afghanistan -- both here in the countries of the first world and throughout the Arab nations.
Lebanon also undermined the rhetoric of the War on Terrorism such by the time this Lebanon slaughter concludes  the spiel is going to look a bit desolate.

But I also point out that events in Mexico only serve to push the Obrador-ian grass roots further leftward. For Mexico to be allowed to elect even a quasi reformist government in the mould even a little like Evo Morales changes the axis  in the Americas and especially  in regard to Cuba both on and off the island.

But it's broader than that. These mobilisations of Latino migrants in their millions in US cities suggests to me that the pan national liberation and race movements that kick started the sixties radicalisation is being echoed today.

Of course it doesn't necessarily mean that there will be a replication -- but the massive scale of contemporary events and the huge role played in them by an activist layer within our species has a material substance that is going to have a massive historical impact. What did Lenin say? -- "When the idea enters the mass it becomes a material force." Well, you can't get more conscious than these events -- millions of people are saying loud and clear what they want.
The slide show on the Mexico city mobe I published here makes an telling point in that regard.
 When you look at it the whole thing is mind boggling. My guess is that THIS is the biggest mobilisation of humans since Iran in 1979.Yes folks there was a revolution on a massive scale in Iran -- a very 1789 type revolution as it turned out (with its own Thermidorian reaction --and that's not referring to lobster). But these mobes have been so thick and fast this year that we have become blase about them.

I think Mexico City last weekend in the context of the slaughter at Qana tells us so much about the world and its immediate potentials and capacities.

What Alarcon doesn't say in his comment to Democracy Now is how much the US military is a blunted instrument in Iraq. That doesn't mean that it cannot kill on a huge scale (of course its capacity in that regard is unchallenged)-- but this outfit is never  going to win the hearts and minds not only because it is an invading force but also because it is a military force in degeneration and decay. The same thing happened in Vietnam. But here in Iraq after a mere 3 years of fighting the morale and discipline of this army is collapsing.

Now that's a significant event. The most powerful military force in the history of human kind cannot suppress a dogs breakfast of an  opposition in either Iraq or Afghanistan. This isn't Vietnam -- this isn't a honed and disciplined National Liberation Front wedded to the masses & already schooled over so many years driving  out the French occupation.  But still the US military can't rise to the occasion on any one of its military fronts.

There's been a lot written about old style warfare and the context of the Israeli onslaught in Lebanon . And I guess that's true as the exercise is very instructive in that regard, very clear cut. And anyone who wants to consider the question  the Israeli military strategy in this war warrants careful study because this is  the IDF that has been  honing  its specialties -- terrorism and slaughter -- for over fifty years  --since the halcyon days of the Haganah.
The Zionists, as we like to remind them, even invented modern terrorism in the form of the Irgun.
But the IDF's  weaknesses are so very apparent. In a very real sense they're loosing and many pundits are saying that. They're loosing despite the scale of the slaughter-- primarily because death and destruction is all they're offering. And that's not enough to subjugate a people with. Compared to the status the IDF had following the Six Day War in 1967 or its incurision to  Beirut in 1982, ,millions of Arabs especially are noting the collapse in its ability to sustain an advance.

So Lebanon is a great window into the challenging consequences imperialism faces today. And if GW Bush thinks the US can retake Cuba by force of arms and overpower a fully armed and trained population absolutely committed to national self determination then we know who is in cloud cuckoo land.

It is at times like these that re-reading Frederick Engels study, The Role of Force In History seems warranted...because force isn't always as powerful as it's cracked up to be.
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